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NO NEED TO GUESS

Updated: Apr 4

Who to listen to among investors to spot market changes in time

In April 2025, the markets are going through noticeable turbulence. The introduction of new import tariffs by Donald Trump’s administration has caused a sharp decline in investor sentiment. Over the course of a month, U.S. stock indexes have dropped by 10–15%. The Nasdaq saw its steepest decline since the start of the pandemic, and European markets have also started to correct downward.

The biggest casualties are tech and consumer companies, especially those dependent on international supply chains. For instance, Tesla’s stock has fallen by 36%, while Amazon and Apple have each lost about 20% of their value. Investors are cashing in on high-risk assets and shifting toward more conservative instruments like bonds and gold.


Amid all this pressure, market volatility has spiked: the VIX index, which measures market swings, shot up to 35—levels comparable to the uncertain times of 2020. In such conditions, market participants are paying close attention to macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation data, Federal Reserve statements, and commodity market conditions.


Overall, the market is on edge, investors are reworking their strategies, and analysts are predicting a deeper correction could be on the horizon.


During these unsettling times, the actions of the most seasoned and renowned investors draw particular attention. When markets are choppy, their moves and statements become a kind of compass, helping market participants navigate the challenging environment.


Warren Buffett, for example, has always been known for his cautious approach and ability to foresee market shifts. Over the decades, he’s consistently managed not just to preserve Berkshire Hathaway’s capital, but to grow it during periods when other investors were suffering losses.



While Buffett rarely makes public predictions about upcoming crises, his investment strategies and preparatory actions often serve as early warning signs of looming turbulence.


Buffett and 2025: What can we learn from his actions?


The start of 2025 saw Buffett take the unexpected step of significantly increasing his company’s cash reserves. By April, those reserves had reached a record $134 billion. For comparison, on the eve of the 2008 crisis, Berkshire Hathaway held “only” about $50 billion in cash. This move sparked rumors that Buffett was bracing for a major market correction. His caution is often viewed as an early signal: when the Oracle of Omaha starts stockpiling cash, investors begin preparing for a storm.


Why is it worth keeping an eye on Buffett?


1. A proven knack for predicting crises:

Buffett is known for his spot-on warnings. Before the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, he cautioned that the stock market was overheating. His commitment to fundamental analysis and rejection of trendy, overhyped assets helped his companies avoid significant losses.


2. A conservative approach as a market barometer:

In a world where many investors chase rapid growth, Buffett sticks to moderate valuations and long-term perspectives. His shift to holding cash or scaling back positions in certain sectors often hints at emerging troubles in those areas.


3. A unique lens compared to other top players:

Unlike some leading investors—such as Michael Burry (famous for predicting the 2008 mortgage crisis) or Ray Dalio—who rely heavily on macroeconomic models, Buffett often starts with microeconomics. He scrutinizes company reports, assesses the ratio of debt to revenue, and isn’t afraid to exit assets he sees as too risky.


What’s in it for founders and individual investors?

Following Buffett doesn’t just mean learning from one of the most successful investors in history—it also means receiving an early warning signal about potential risks. His cautious moves, whether it’s amassing cash, trimming exposure to tech sectors, or exiting certain companies, can serve as a guide for rethinking one’s own strategy.


By watching Buffett’s actions, you can not only anticipate market crashes but also develop more resilient investment approaches.


Who else should you follow to predict market downturns?


• Michael Burry (@michaeljburry)

Best known for foreseeing the 2008 mortgage crisis, Michael Burry’s market commentary always commands attention. Check out his forecasts and insights on X (formerly Twitter):



• Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood)

As founder and CEO of ARK Invest, Cathie Wood is known for her long-term bets on innovative technologies. While her predictions are sometimes controversial, they offer valuable insights into the future of high-tech companies:



• Ray Dalio (@RayDalio)

Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, regularly shares his views on global macroeconomic trends. His analyses of debt cycles and the global economy can help investors navigate challenging conditions:



• Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath)

A former Facebook executive turned prominent venture investor, Chamath Palihapitiya frequently posts about investment strategies and market risks. Keep an eye on his analysis and thoughts:


These investors may not always provide direct recommendations, but their observations and commentary help to spot larger market shifts, understand global trends, and react promptly to changes.


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